How reliable are analyst prognoses?
As an example, look at this chart comparing several prognoses regarding the oil price development given over a number of years. And then ask yourself how difficult it is to extrapolate a linear development of something, and how many people are able to predict non-linear development correctly?
After that you might want to re-evaluate the money your organisation pays another organisation for their "predictions"...
http://static.twoday.net/chorherr/images/iea1.jpg
http://static.twoday.net/chorherr/images/iea1.jpg
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